Bima Wicaksana - 16 Nov,
2025
Just weeks after China and the European Union reopened their doors to Brazilian chicken, the global poultry market is breathing a collective sigh of relief — but not everyone is celebrating. The lifting of these bans, confirmed in mid-September and finalized by November 16, 2025, marks a critical recovery for Brazil’s $12 billion chicken export industry, which had been rocked by a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul last May. While the world’s largest poultry exporter is regaining ground, countries like Canada, Malaysia, Pakistan, and East Timor still hold firm, leaving Brazilian farmers in limbo — and global supply chains still strained.
How Brazil Got Back Into China and the EU
The outbreak began in early May 2025 in commercial poultry farms in southern Brazil’s
Rio Grande do Sul state. Within days, over 2.1 million birds were culled, and egg production was halted. Brazil immediately notified the
World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) in Paris, triggering a domino effect. By mid-May, China, the EU, and 14 other nations had suspended imports.
Fitch Ratings warned at the time that Brazil’s exports would take a "moderate hit," citing suspensions from China, the EU, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, and South Korea.
But here’s the twist: Brazil didn’t just wait. Its
Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply launched a diplomatic blitz. They sent technical teams to Beijing and Brussels, submitted detailed biosecurity logs, and even invited auditors from both regions to inspect farms firsthand. By late August, the EU had approved Brazil’s revised disease control protocols. "They saw we didn’t just contain the outbreak — we rebuilt the system," said one anonymous official familiar with the negotiations.
China followed suit. According to
LatinNews, Beijing conducted its own on-site inspections in early October, focusing on slaughterhouse hygiene, transport protocols, and traceability systems. The lifting was confirmed on November 16, 2025, after a five-month freeze. "This isn’t just about chicken," noted a trade analyst in São Paulo. "It’s about trust. China doesn’t lift bans lightly."
Who’s Still Shutting the Door?
While the EU and China reopened their markets, five countries remain stubbornly closed.
Canada cited "ongoing risk assessments" — a polite way of saying they’re not convinced Brazil’s surveillance is foolproof.
Malaysia and
Pakistan have yet to issue public reasoning, but industry insiders suspect political pressure from domestic poultry lobbies.
East Timor, a small island nation with minimal poultry consumption, has maintained its ban since May, possibly as a precautionary measure.
And it’s not just countries. Some places imposed zone-based restrictions. Japan, for instance, blocked only two municipalities —
Campinápolis and
Santo Antônio da Barra — due to backyard flock infections, not the commercial outbreak. Meanwhile, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan banned imports from specific Brazilian states, not the whole country.
Even more telling: Argentina, Chile, and South Africa still allow Brazilian heat-treated poultry products — meaning cooked chicken nuggets, sausages, and canned meats can still flow freely. That’s a $1.8 billion loophole Brazil is now aggressively exploiting.
What This Means for Global Markets
Brazil’s poultry industry is back on track to be the world’s top exporter in 2026, according to the
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS). Their September 2025 report (BR2025-0038) estimates Brazil will ship over 5.2 million metric tons of chicken meat next year — up 7% from 2024. But here’s the catch: imports into Brazil are forecasted at exactly 5,000 metric tons, all from Argentina and Chile. Why? Because Brazil’s domestic production is so massive, it doesn’t need to import — it’s exporting surplus.
The ripple effect? European consumers may see slightly lower chicken prices as Brazilian supply floods back. U.S. exporters, who gained market share during the ban, could lose ground. And in Asia, countries like Thailand and Vietnam are watching closely — if Brazil can win back China, they might try the same playbook.
What’s Next for Brazil’s Poultry Sector?
Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture has set a clear goal: full market restoration by late 2026. That means convincing the remaining holdouts — Canada, Malaysia, Pakistan, and East Timor — through renewed technical briefings and third-party audits. WOAH is now acting as a mediator, reviewing Brazil’s updated biosecurity framework for submission to each country.
There’s also a quiet push to reclassify some restrictions as "temporary." For example, Pakistan’s ban may be lifted if Brazil agrees to pre-export testing at Pakistani ports — a compromise that could set a new global standard. Meanwhile, Brazil is investing $200 million in digital traceability systems, aiming to make every chicken’s journey from farm to freezer trackable in real time.
"This isn’t just about avian flu anymore," said Dr. Luiza Mendes, a food safety professor at the University of São Paulo. "It’s about proving that a developing nation can lead in global biosecurity. If Brazil can do it, so can others."
Background: Why This Outbreak Was Different
Unlike previous HPAI outbreaks — which were often localized and short-lived — the May 2025 strain was genetically distinct, with higher mortality rates in both commercial and backyard flocks. It also coincided with peak export season, making the economic impact sharper. What’s remarkable is that Brazil’s industry didn’t collapse. Production dropped 12% in June but rebounded by August, thanks to rapid culling, strict quarantine zones, and government subsidies to farmers.
The USDA FAS report also notes something unusual: Brazil was one of the few countries to publicly release its culling timeline. Most nations keep that data private. Brazil’s transparency, while risky, may have been its secret weapon.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did China and the EU lift their bans when others didn’t?
China and the EU have large, import-dependent poultry markets and strong diplomatic channels with Brazil. Both conducted on-site audits and accepted Brazil’s revised biosecurity protocols. Countries like Canada and Pakistan lack those same incentives — they have domestic poultry industries that lobby against foreign competition, and their regulatory systems are less flexible. Brazil’s transparency and rapid response made it easier for the EU and China to justify reopening.
How did Brazil manage to recover so quickly?
Brazil combined aggressive culling (2.1 million birds in under two weeks) with real-time data sharing via the WOAH system and direct engagement with importing nations. The government also provided emergency subsidies to farmers to maintain flock sizes and invested in digital traceability. Unlike past outbreaks, this time, Brazil didn’t wait for foreign approval — it proactively invited inspectors in.
What products are still banned, and which ones are still allowed?
Whole chickens, raw meat, and eggs are banned in countries like Canada and Malaysia. But thermal-processed products — like canned chicken, cooked nuggets, and sausages — are still permitted in Argentina, Chile, and South Africa. Japan only banned two specific municipalities. This distinction matters because processed products have lower disease transmission risk, making them easier to approve under international trade rules.
Is Brazil’s poultry industry truly back to normal?
Not yet. While exports to China and the EU have resumed, Brazil lost nearly $1.3 billion in sales during the five-month ban. Domestic prices dropped temporarily due to oversupply, hurting small farmers. Full recovery means regaining all lost markets — especially Malaysia and Pakistan — which could take until late 2026. Brazil’s goal is to be the world’s top exporter again, but the scars of this outbreak will linger in trade negotiations for years.
What role did the USDA FAS play in this situation?
The USDA FAS acted as an independent, authoritative source of truth. Their September 4, 2025 report (BR2025-0038) was the first comprehensive global tracker of which countries had lifted or maintained bans. It gave Brazil leverage in negotiations and helped other nations make informed decisions. Their data is now used by the World Bank and FAO as a model for tracking trade disruptions during disease outbreaks.
Could this happen again?
Yes — and Brazil is preparing. They’ve upgraded surveillance in all 26 states and the Federal District, installed AI-powered flock monitoring systems, and created a rapid-response fund for future outbreaks. The May 2025 incident exposed vulnerabilities, but also proved Brazil’s capacity to respond. The real question isn’t if another outbreak will come — it’s whether the world will trust Brazil’s response again.
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